Active
AI Futures Simulator
- Status
- Active — maintained, real outputs
- Method
- Monte Carlo, 3 seeds × 400 runs
- Horizon
- 2026–2050
- Code
- Public
A joint Monte Carlo simulator for AI-related futures from 2026 to 2050: a capability growth spine, discrete plot events, and a society-feedback loop that compound into emergent outcome regions — doom, utopia, friction, and severe-but-recoverable — rather than a single hand-picked forecast.
The headline numbers are emergent, not hand-tuned: across 3 seeds × 400 runs, the simulator lands at roughly 7% doom, 18% utopia, 69% friction, and 6% severe outcomes.
Every event's cumulative probability in the model's configuration traces back to a specific claim, a stated reason, and cited evidence — the simulator is a companion to a public forecast essay and an accompanying evidence index, not a black box producing a number.